Pre-registered Predictions
Each numerical prediction below was published before the data that could confirm or refute it became available. Statuses will be updated as the expected 2026-2027 publications appear.
A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory but a vice.
— Karl Popper, Conjectures and Refutations (1963)
3
Pending
4
Proposed tests
0
Confirmed
0
Refuted
⏳ Awaiting data
Published predictions. The data that will test them is expected in 6-18 months.
Euclid DR1–DR3: structures & cosmic voids
Pending
Paper VI & IX · Zenodo
DR1: October 2026 · DR2/DR3: 2027–2030
ESA / Euclid Consortium
The TSTU framework predicts two distinct but correlated signatures: (1) a structure growth rate slightly amplified relative to ΛCDM (Paper IX), and (2) an enhanced gravitational coupling μ ≃ 1.018 specifically inside cosmic voids where the chameleon mechanism is unscreened (Paper VI). Void-stacked E_G testing (Hamaus-style) at z ≃ 0.5–1.0 provides a quantitative target for DR2/DR3.
- fσ₈(z=0.5) TSTU
- 0.468 ± 0.009
- fσ₈(z=0.5) ΛCDM
- 0.450 ± 0.007
- μ(voids) TSTU
- 1.018 ± 0.003
- E_G deficit
- 1.09 % (Paper VI)
- δE bound (Paper VI)
- ≲ 2 × 10⁻⁶
Falsification: if Euclid DR1 measures fσ₈(0.5) < 0.455 at 3σ, or if DR2/DR3 measures μ(voids) < 1.010 at 2σ, the theory is invalidated in its current form. Paper VI formally proves that the auxiliary field E induces corrections δμ/μ ≲ 10⁻⁷, negligibly small: the prediction remains exact.
JWST: massive galaxies at z > 10 (Labbé follow-up)
Pending
Paper X + XIII · Zenodo
NIRSpec follow-up: 2026-2027
Paper XIII's analytical enclosure (1.070 ≤ G_eff ≤ 1.623) predicts a +0.25 dex stellar-mass excess at z ≈ 9 compared to ΛCDM expectations. The Labbé+2023 data (6 candidates) qualitatively corroborate; upcoming NIRSpec spectroscopic confirmation will validate or refute the photometrically-inferred masses.
- ΔlogM★ TSTU
- +0.25 dex (Bondi +0.18, halo +0.07)
- t_coll (z=9) TSTU
- 500 Myr
- t_coll (z=9) ΛCDM
- 552 Myr (+10%)
- G_eff,max
- 1.350
Falsification: if NIRSpec confirmation reveals that the Labbé candidates are photometric artifacts (masses overestimated by > 0.3 dex), the framework's most emblematic prediction falls.
H₀(z=0.5): TDCOSMO test 2027–2030
Pending
Paper XV §3.6 · Linear-growth reframing
Data expected: TDCOSMO 2027, H0LiCOW 2028, Euclid DR2 2028–2029
Paper XV (May 2026) refines the H₀ prediction: a non-circular ΛCDM-pure refit of Pantheon+SH0ES with full STAT+SYS covariance yields H₀ = 73.42 ± 1.01 km/s/Mpc (χ²/dof = 0.897), in 0.29σ agreement with SH0ES. The Paper II value (76.2) is identified as a statistical circularity artifact under the joint TSTU prior (Paper XV §3.5). The new TSTU prediction is H₀(z=0.5) ≃ 71.5 km/s/Mpc via linear-growth reframing (Paper XV §3.6), in 1.90σ marginal tension with ΛCDM-pure.
- H₀(z=0.5) TSTU (Paper XV)
- ≃ 71.5 km/s/Mpc
- H₀ ΛCDM-pure refit
- 73.42 ± 1.01
- H₀ SH0ES 2022
- 73.04 ± 1.04
- H₀ Planck 2018
- 67.4 ± 0.5
- χ²/dof Paper XV refit
- 0.897
Falsification protocol (Paper XV §3.6): if TDCOSMO 2027–2030 returns H₀(z=0.5) ∈ [71.0, 72.0] km/s/Mpc, the TSTU linear-growth mechanism is confirmed. If TDCOSMO returns H₀(z=0.5) ≳ 75 or ≃ 73.4 km/s/Mpc at > 2σ, Paper XV Model A is falsified and structural revision is required.
🧪 Proposed experimental tests
Falsifiable predictions by experiments that have not yet been conducted in the precise form required. Actively seeking collaborators.
¹⁶⁴Dy dipolar BEC: Vakhitov-Kolokolov Q(ω) curve
Proposed
Paper VIII · DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19109359
Candidate labs: Pfau (Stuttgart), Ferlaino (Innsbruck)
Formal TSTU → dipolar Gross-Pitaevskii mapping via Rabi reduction U(1) → Z₂. The Ætheron appears as a relative-phase oscillon stabilized by the VK criterion. Exact numerical predictions in the accessible Feshbach window.
- Q_max (α=9)
- 21.7
- Q_max (α=5)
- 37.9
- Q_max (α=3)
- 63.2
- Fenêtre Feshbach
- B ∈ [150, 207] G
Falsification: if a ¹⁶⁴Dy BEC lab tests the three α values and measures Q_max deviations > 30% from the Table 2 predictions, the formal mapping is refuted.
NMDA blockade (ketamine): sync / gamma-power dissociation
Proposed
Paper VII · DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19139925
Proposed experiment: simultaneous LFP + TMS-EEG
NMDA blockade reduces the effective synaptic window τ_syn from ~5 ms (AMPA/NMDA mix) to ~2 ms (pure AMPA). In the TSTU framework, this drops K_eff/K_c below 1 while preserving local gamma power — a dissociation that a simple suppression model cannot predict.
- K_eff (sain)
- 33.3 Hz
- K_eff (kétamine)
- 13.3 Hz
- K_c (Strogatz)
- 16.9 Hz
- Ratio : sain → kétamine
- 1.97 → 0.79
Falsification: if sub-anesthetic NMDA blockade suppresses local gamma power proportionally to the loss of consciousness, there is no dissociation to explain — the TSTU topological mechanism is superfluous.
Cortical thickness > 2 mm: phylogenetic consciousness bound
Proposed
Paper VII §5.3 · Zenodo
Neuroanatomical meta-analysis required
Since D ∝ r_a (cable theory) and r_a correlates with cortical thickness (Elston 2003), the model predicts K_eff/K_c > 1 for all mammals with cortex > 2 mm. Phylogenetically testable via cross-species comparison of integrated-consciousness markers (PCI).
- Seuil prédit
- 2 mm
- Observable : PCI
- Casali+2013 protocol
- Espèces : primates
- K_eff/K_c > 1 attendu
- Espèces : rongeurs
- K_eff/K_c ~ 1 (limite)
Falsification: if a mammal with cortex < 2 mm shows PCI > 0.31 (integrated-consciousness marker), the anatomical bound is false.
New extreme TNOs (LSST): ω ≈ 300° clustering at ±18°
Proposed
Paper II · DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17834933
Data: Vera Rubin Observatory / LSST
The unscreened φ field beyond 50 AU tugs highly eccentric orbits toward a preferred direction. TSTU predicts that the ~50 new extreme TNOs (a > 250 AU) discovered by LSST 2026-2030 will converge to ω ≈ 300° with dispersion ≤ 18° — without invoking Planet 9.
- ω prédit (TSTU)
- ~300° ± 18°
- ω prédit (standard)
- ~180° ± 100° (random)
- ω prédit (Planet 9)
- ~300° ± 45°
- Taille échantillon requise
- N ≥ 30
Falsification: if the observed dispersion exceeds 45° (distinguishable from Planet 9), or if the mean angle deviates from 300° by more than 50°, the external φ tension does not explain the clustering.
Tracking method
Each numerical prediction listed here was published on Zenodo (dated, permanent DOI) before the public availability of the data that will test it. The original papers contain the complete derivations. This page will be updated as expected publications appear — the "Confirmed" or "Refuted" statuses will reference the peer-reviewed articles that adjudicate each prediction. No post-hoc adjustment will be accepted: a refuted prediction stays refuted.
Can you test one of these predictions?
Actively seeking experimental collaborators (dipolar BEC, L5 electrophysiology, gravitational lensing, TNO photometry) to turn these proposed predictions into published results. Contact me →